Bayesian Hierarchical ANOVA of Regional Climate-Change Projections from NARCCAP Phase II

► Regional climate models (RCMs) provide projections of climate in the future, as well as current climate. ► Temperature change for RCMs from NARCCAP is studied, where the change is defined as differences in 1970-2000 averages from 2040-2070 averages. ► A Bayesian spatial ANOVA of the NARCCAP data shows that projected temperatures are credibly higher. ► Between-seasonal variability is much stronger than between-RCM variability.