Estimation of retired mobile phones generation in China: A comparative study on methodology

- The sales data of mobile phones in China was revised by considering the amount of smuggled and counterfeit mobile phones.
- The estimation of retired mobile phones in China was made by comparing some relevant methods.
- The advanced result of estimation can help improve the policy-making.
- The method suggested in this paper can be also used in other countries.
- Some discussions on methodology are also conducted in order for the improvement.

Due to the rapid development of economy and technology, China has the biggest production and possession of mobile phones around the world. In general, mobile phones have relatively short life time because the majority of users replace their mobile phones frequently. Retired mobile phones represent the most valuable electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) in the main waste stream because of such characteristics as large quantity, high reuse/recovery value and fast replacement frequency. Consequently, the huge amount of retired mobile phones in China calls for a sustainable management system.The generation estimation can provide fundamental information to construct the sustainable management system of retired mobile phones and other waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). However, the reliable estimation result is difficult to get and verify. The priority aim of this paper is to provide proper estimation approach for the generation of retired mobile phones in China, by comparing some relevant methods. The results show that the sales&new method is in the highest priority in estimation of the retired mobile phones. The result of sales&new method shows that there are 47.92 million mobile phones retired in 2002, and it reached to 739.98 million in China in 2012. It presents an increasing tendency with some fluctuations clearly.Furthermore, some discussions on methodology, such as the selection of improper approach and error in the input data, are also conducted in order to improve generation estimation of retired mobile phones and other WEEE.