Influence of drought and irrigation on sugarcane yields in different agroecoregions in Mexico

- Temporal patterns in climate change affect sugarcane yields.
- Decreased soil moisture was found in some agroecoregions, affecting crop yields.
- Irrigation management policies for agroecoregions in Mexico must be designed.

There is evidence that the decreased precipitation attributed to climate change is the main cause of the low sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) yields obtained in Mexico in recent years. The main objective of the present study was to establish whether temporal patterns in climate change affect sugarcane yields and irrigation requirements. In order to address these questions, we identified trends in climate parameters related to production in different agroecoregions where sugarcane is produced under different irrigation regimes. These regions were differentiated by means of geographic information systems and multivariate statistical analysis (principal components analysis), which were applied to data supplied by the 54 registered sugar mills in Mexico. Use of parametric models (linear regression) and non-parametric models (Mann-Kendall) enabled us to establish temporal trends in soil water availability and changes in productivity. Irrigation regime and production were related to climate patterns in the 7 agroecoregions identified. The temporal models revealed different trends in water availability, which affected crop yield. Decreased soil moisture was most evident in the agroecoregions where the crops were not irrigated or were managed with supplementary irrigation, and this affected the crop yields. The findings indicate the need to develop short and mid-term irrigation management policies for agroecoregions in Mexico.