Directional wave climate and power variability along the Southeast Australian shelf

Variability in the modal wave climate is a key process driving large-scale coastal behaviour on moderate- to high-energy sandy coastlines, and is strongly related to variability in synoptic climate drivers. On sub-tropical coasts, shifts in the sub-tropical ridge (STR) modulate the seasonal occurrence of different wave types. However, in semi-enclosed seas, isolating directional wave climates and synoptic drivers is hindered by a complex mixed sea-swell environment. Here we present a directional wave climate typology for the Tasman Sea based on a combined statistical-synoptic approach using mid-shelf wave buoy observations along the Southeast Australian Shelf (SEAS). Five synoptic-scale wave climates exist during winter, and six during summer. These can be clustered into easterly (Tradewind), south-easterly (Tasman Sea) and southerly (Southern Ocean) wave types, each with distinct wave power signatures. We show that a southerly shift in the STR and trade-wind zone, consistent with an observed poleward expansion of the tropics, forces an increase in the total wave energy flux in winter for the central New South Wales shelf of 1.9 GJ m-1 wave-crest-length for 1° southerly shift in the STR, and a reduction of similar magnitude (approximately 1.8 GJ m-1) during summer. In both seasons there is an anti-clockwise rotation of wave power towards the east and south-east at the expense of southerly waves. Reduced obliquity of constructive wave power would promote a general disruption to northward alongshore sediment transport, with the cross-shore component becoming increasingly prevalent. Results are of global relevance to sub-tropical east coasts where the modal wave climate is influenced by the position of the zonal STR.