Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems

- Hydrologic complex systems often have multi-stability.
- Non-stationary attractors can cause regime shifts independently from external shocks.
- Stochasticity in internal dynamics can cause stochastic regime shifts.
- This concept is illustrated by using hydrologic case studies.

We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems.