Separating the impacts of climate change and land surface alteration on runoff reduction in the Jing River catchment of China

- Impacts of land surface alteration and climate change on runoff were evaluated within the Budyko framework.
- Temporal evolution of sensitivity coefficients of runoff was shown.
- Climate change played the major role in runoff change.
- Impacts of land surface alteration on runoff were increasing over time.

The Loess Plateau of China is subject to severe water shortages, and the runoff reduction observed in most watersheds exacerbates the problem. Quantifying the contributions of environmental changes to runoff reduction is thus very important for water resources management. Taking the Jing River catchment as the study area, the changes in runoff for the period of 1961-2010 at three gauge stations-the catchment outlet (Zhang Jia Shan, ZJS) and the two others from the upper reach (Yang Jia Ping, YJP, and Yu Luo Ping, YLP) were analyzed in this study. Using the Budyko framework, the spatiotemporal variations of the contributions of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (ET0), and land surface conditions (represented by the parameter n in the Choudhury-Yang equation) to runoff changes were evaluated. A significant downward trend in runoff was detected for the ZJS and YJP stations. The sensitivity of the runoff changes to the different environmental factors considered was different. The sensitivity coefficient was the greatest for P, intermediate for ET0, and smallest for the land surface condition (n). However, the sensitivity coefficients are becoming greater over time. The decrease in P was the dominant factor in the runoff reduction at the three stations, but its effect was largely offset by the increase in n at YLP. The contribution of land surface alteration to runoff reduction has been increasing in recent years, which indicates that the improvement of vegetation coverage and the construction of terraces and check dams have strengthened their impacts on runoff. Therefore, careful attention should be paid to the hydrological effects of soil conservation measures on runoff.