Agricultural landscape dynamics in response to economic transition: Comparisons between different spatial planning zones in Ningbo region, China

Many major agricultural regions worldwide are experiencing drastic landscape transformations. Examining the complex links among agricultural landscape dynamics (ALD), land use and land cover (LULC) change, socioeconomic development and government planning is pivotal to enhance the efficiency of agricultural landscape management. With a case of the Ningbo region (China), this paper employs the structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify and compare the relationships between ALD and economic transition as well as the mediating LULC factors in different spatial planning zones. ALD are quantified by time series remotely sensed imageries and a set of landscape metrics; and economic transition is described by a set of indicators from three aspects (globalization, decentralization and marketization). Results show that ALD present similar trend in the two spatial planning zones between 1979 and 2013. However, the magnitude of ALD is larger in the non-urban planning zone. In particular, agricultural landscapes change into the fragmented, irregular, decreased, and isolated patterns at a more rapid pace. Economic transition drivers and LULC mediators differ remarkably between the two spatial planning zones. For the urban planning zone, economic transition influences ALD through construction land morphological changes and water body spatial density increases. For the non-urban planning zone, economic transition influences ALD through forest morphological changes and construction land spatial density increases. In addition, the relative importance of ALD determinants differs between the two spatial planning zones. Marketization plays a more critical role in driving ALD in the urban planning zone, while decentralization has a stronger impact on ALD in the non-urban planning zone. It is argued that land use master plan for agricultural landscape protection should be implemented in the non-urban planning zones and land use plan in the two spatial planning zones should be integrated. This study contributes to the understanding of the complex mechanism of ALD in response to economic transition.