Quantification of the potential impact of nature conservation on ecosystem services supply in the Flemish Region: A cascade modelling approach

- A cascade ES model is used to assess the impact of nature conservation on ES.
- Correlation values are used as indicator for the added value of advanced modelling.
- Atypical responses to land cover change are driven by off-site effects.
- Mean added value per area unit of land cover change range from 637 to 3 944 €/ha.
- High values of ES-supply are often associated with scarcity and pressures.

Ecological networks of protected areas are critical elements to protect biodiversity. To achieve a minimal performance of such networks, measures and investments are necessary for nature restoration and management. The concept of ecosystem service (ES) can provide additional arguments for investments in ecological networks. However, ES delivery processes are embedded in a complex array of ecological processes and there is a need to cope with this complexity in a pragmatic manner. As many assessment studies have already been criticized for using oversimplified indicators, too much pragmatism may foreclose credibility and acceptance of ES assessments. Therefore, a cascade ES modelling approach was developed that incorporated ecological processes, multiple off-site effects, feedbacks and trade-off mechanisms through shared variables. The assessment focused on which services the existing network delivers and how these services are influenced after realization of site specific conservation objectives.