Energy realities or modelling: Which is more useful in a world of internal contradictions?

For over forty years energy expectations have been riddled with internal contradictions, and all too often a failure to recognise complexity, the nature and scale of the challenges to be faced, and resultant uncertainty. Key elements of Shell's “World of Internal Contradictions” scenario, issued internally in October 1974, still hold good. Some other elements have since intruded, though they should not have been entirely unsuspected. The paper opens with a summary of the October 1974, risks then anticipated: another regional conflict in the Middle East; further serious threats to energy supplies; and another currency crisis and recession. Changes in social attitudes were thought likely to shift the emphasis from working for high achievement to 'takers and dreamers' having a more influential role. There were numerous internal contradictions anticipated in the evolution of this long-term scenario that have been apparent over the past forty years and seem likely to continue. Some fundamentals of the exploitation and use of energy resources were as apparent then as they are now. The future, like the past, seems likely to be riddled with internal contradictions and failure to find satisfactory resolution of important challenges for the human race. But the complexities, uncertainties and time horizons involved suggest modelling is a marginal option compared with other approaches.