کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6538326 | 1421026 | 2018 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Social vulnerability projections improve sea-level rise risk assessments
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی های آسیب پذیری اجتماعی، ارتقاء سطح خطر در معرض خطر را افزایش می دهد
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کلمات کلیدی
آسیب پذیری اجتماعی، ارزیابی ریسک، افزایش سطح آب دریا، متابولیسم جمعیت شناسی، تغییر آب و هوا، گرجستان،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
جنگلداری
چکیده انگلیسی
Rising seas will impact millions of coastal residents in coming decades. The vulnerability of coastal populations exposed to inundation will be greater for some sub-populations due to differences in their socio-demographic characteristics. Many climate risk and vulnerability assessments, however, model current populations against future environments. We advance sea-level rise risk assessments by dynamically modeling environmental change and socio-demographic change. We project three scenarios of inundation exposure due to future sea-level rise in coastal Georgia from 2010 to 2050. We align the sea-level rise projections with five population projection scenarios of socially vulnerable sub-populations via the Hamilton-Perry method and the theory of demographic metabolism. Our combined fast sea-level rise and middle population scenarios project a near doubling of the population exposed, and a more than five-fold increase for those at risk (i.e., residing in a census tract with high social vulnerability) and most at risk (i.e., high social vulnerability and high exposure) compared to the same estimate based on 2010 population data. Of vulnerable sub-populations, women had the largest absolute increase in exposure for all scenario combinations. The Hispanic/Latinx population's exposure increased the largest proportionally under the fast and medium sea-level rise projections and elderly people's (65+) under the slow sea-level rise scenario. Our findings suggest that for coastal areas experiencing rapid growth (or declines) in more socially vulnerable sub-populations, estimates based on current population data are likely to underestimate (or overestimate) the proportion of such groups' risk to inundation from future sea-level rise.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Applied Geography - Volume 91, February 2018, Pages 10-20
Journal: Applied Geography - Volume 91, February 2018, Pages 10-20
نویسندگان
R. Dean Hardy, Mathew E. Hauer,