A counterfactual scenario simulation approach for assessing the impact of farmland preservation policies on urban sprawl and food security in a major grain-producing area of China

► Counterfactual scenario simulation model was constructed based on constrained CA. ► The policies were integrated into utility function of decision-making. ► The policies had contributed to controlling the arable land loss and urban sprawl. ► The model can potentially be applied to other major grain-producing area of China.