Integrating strategic land use planning in the construction of future land use scenarios and its performance: The Maipo River Basin, Chile

The integration of urban, rural, and environmental systems is fundamental for resource management. Strategic land use planning attempts to balance these systems to reach sustainability by incorporating future scenario analyses. However, long-term implications of these strategic land use plans are not easily understood, nor spatially visualized, due to their multidimensional effects. This paper illustrates the integration of political conditionings obtained from a strategic land use plan, into a land change model (LCM) to assess long-term policy impacts using landscape metrics. Guided by participatory instances with a group of public, private, and civil stakeholders called the Scenario Building Team (SBT), the Dyna-CLUE LCM was implemented. Two policy frameworks (a trending business-as-usual and a strategic land use plan) were assessed under high and low urban demands up to year 2050 for the Maipo River basin, where the capital of Chile is located. The participatory approach proved to be a useful tool for scenario development and assessment, as the SBT provided valuable information and result's feasibility analysis. Under all scenarios, peri-urban municipalities would concentrate most urban growth, and those located in the North-West part of the capital would face the largest urban expansion. However, strategic planning implementation would restrict urban areas within the actual urban limits enhancing small town growth. Agricultural areas remain in the best places for production, but still are the greatest contributors to urban expansion. The strategic plan is less effective in diminishing flood risk zones or protecting ecosystems that support the SBT's perception about the relevance of stronger environmental legislation in the region.