Urban residential reconversion through demolition: A land use model based on administrative spatial micro-data

This paper proposes to develop a two-step model based on administrative (spatial) micro-data to identify the determinants that makes residential transactions resulting in demolition and reconversion. A logistic model is estimated and serves as a major input to build land use maps to identify where such pattern is more likely to occur in future. The empirical analysis is based on a medium city size (Québec City, Canada) using the yearly tax assessment roll spanning a decade (2006-2016). Results support conclusions from previous studies regarding determinants of demolition, with smaller and older homes having a higher probability of facing such a situation. The results also underline the relative importance of local environment and location as a factor that also influences the probability of facing a demolition. The predictive exercise suggests that future reconversion through demolition should occur around concentrated spots within the city. The paper aims at furnishing tools to planners to localize where potential teardowns should occur over space and allows them to anticipate appropriate politics instead of reacting to a given situation.