Modeling the population and industry distribution impacts of urban land use policies in Beijing

Capable tools are desired for urban spatial policies planning in China to safeguard its sustainable development strategy. This study develops an activity-based Land Use/Transport Interaction (LUTI) model to forecast the urban activity impacts of the land-use policies. Essentially, its endogenized and interactive features in residential and employment distribution modeling mark it out from the traditional Lowry models. The LUTI model proposed consists of four models, i.e., a transport sub-model, a residential location model, an employment location model and a real estate rent model. It is then applied to the Beijing metropolitan area to characterize the urban activity evolution trend under the land use policies of recent years. The results show that with the increasing number of floorspace developed on the outskirts, more residents and employers are relocating there and sub-centers are formed to divide the service of central Beijing. This trend is consistent with the objective of government planning to develop more sub-centers around central Beijing by decentralizing industries to guide residential population growth patterns. The model provides a capable planning tool for urban spatial policy makers and demonstrates its first success in Beijing scenario.