Exploring the sensitivity of residential energy consumption in China: Implications from a micro-demographic analysis

Energy consumption in the residential sector is one of the main parts of the total consumption in China, and demographic factors are the fundamental parameters affecting total energy use. Using residential energy consumption (REC) data from household surveys, demographic data from population censuses and macro-energy statistics, and the research assesses a theoretical model of the demographic sensitivity of REC in urban China. The method of population component is adopted to explore the demographic sensitivity on REC. Our research reveals different micro-demographic processes have different effects on REC, even when macro-demographic levels are identical or similar. Natural population change, urbanisation and aging are sensitive to REC. However, the population age structure is not sensitive to REC except for the 60+ age group. The scale effect plays a pivotal role in correlations between REC and demographic changes; decreasing per capita REC correlates with increasing family size. Because of the multiple sensitivities of population to REC, population size cannot be the exclusive demographic indicator with which to judge changes in REC. The effects of demographic structural factors surpass those of demographic quantitative factors. Finally, the findings of demographic sensitivity are used to simulate the scenarios of REC in 2015 under different assumed micro-demographic processes.