Statistical analysis and modelling of in-reactor diametral creep of Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes

This paper presents the development of a simplified regression approach for modelling the diametral creep over time in Zr-2.5 wt% Nb pressure tubes used in CANDU reactors. The model is based on a large dataset of in-service inspection data of 328 different pressure tubes from eight different CANDU reactor units. The proposed weighted least squares (WLS) regression model is linear in time as a function of flux and temperature, with a temperature-dependent variance function. The model predicts the shape of the observed diametral creep profiles very well, and is useful not merely for prediction, but also for assessing tube-to-tube variability and manufacturing properties among the inspected tubes.