Key factors affecting long-term penetration of global onshore wind energy integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches

We quantified key factors affecting the penetration of global onshore wind energy by 2050. We analyzed a large set of scenarios by combining a wind resource model and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Five factors, including onshore wind resource potential, investment cost, balancing cost, transmission cost and climate change mitigation policy, were considered to generate 96 scenarios and regression analysis was used to assess relevance among the factors. We found that the strongest factors were resource potential and climate target, followed by wind power technology investment cost. Other factors, such as balancing and transmission costs, had relatively smaller impacts. World total onshore wind power in 2050 increases by 13.2 and 15.5 (41% and 49% of 2005 total power generation, respectively) EJ/year if wind potential rises from low to medium and high levels, respectively. Furthermore, 5.9, 17.8, and 24.3 EJ/year of additional wind power could be generated under climate targets of 650, 550 and 450 ppm CO2-eq, respectively. Moreover, reducing wind power technology investment cost would increase global wind power by another 9.2 EJ/year. The methodology can be extended to assess other mitigation technologies if the related data is available.