کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6767272 | 512460 | 2015 | 16 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
On the role of lagged exogenous variables and spatio-temporal correlations in improving the accuracy of solar forecasting methods
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
در نقش متغیرهای بیرونی عقب مانده و همبستگی فضایی و زمانی در بهبود دقت روش های پیش بینی خورشیدی
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
We propose and analyze a spatio-temporal correlation method to improve forecast performance of solar irradiance using gridded satellite-derived global horizontal irradiance (GHI) data. Forecast models are developed for seven locations in California to predict 1-h averaged GHI 1, 2 and 3Â h ahead of time. The seven locations were chosen to represent a diverse set of maritime, mediterranean, arid and semi-arid micro-climates. Ground stations from the California Irrigation Management Information System were used to obtain solar irradiance time-series from the points of interest. In this method, firstly, we define areas with the highest correlated time-series between the satellite-derived data and the ground data. Secondly, we select satellite-derived data from these regions as exogenous variables to several forecast models (linear models, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression) to predict GHI at the seven locations. The results show that using linear forecasting models and a genetic algorithm to optimize the selection of multiple time-lagged exogenous variables results in significant forecasting improvements over other benchmark models.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Renewable Energy - Volume 78, June 2015, Pages 203-218
Journal: Renewable Energy - Volume 78, June 2015, Pages 203-218
نویسندگان
Athanassios Zagouras, Hugo T.C. Pedro, Carlos F.M. Coimbra,