A journey among top ten emitter country, decomposition of “Kaya Identity”

Climate change likely poses severe and distinct threats to human life but COP21 as the first-ever universal, legally binding climate deal created a momentum for rapid changes and expects top ten emitters admit reducing as first target group. This article attempts to evaluate four driving forces of GHG emissions (Kaya Identity), in period of 40 years (1971-2012) among top ten emitters (2015), responsible for 67% of all GHG emissions. Single and Multiple Linear Regression Models are used and the coefficients or multipliers yield, describe the size of the effect which independent variables (include demographic, economic, fuel type and energy usage of a society) have on emissions and the trend of changes. Based on SLRM in a global outlook, population, energy intensity and GDPcapita are the most and carbon intensity is the least influencing factor. MLRM revealed that carbon intensity for China, GDP for the US, Canada and India, energy intensity for Korea and Brazil and finally population in Russia, Japan and Iran are the critical factor leading to more GHG emissions. The results of the evaluation help policymakers to find the most effective and critical criteria for implementation of emission reduction targets with the focus on best options.