(Unintended) Transport impacts of an energy-environment policy: The case of CNG conversion of vehicles in Dhaka

Motor vehicles are one of the major sources of air pollution in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. The government took various policies to convert the petroleum vehicles on road to run on compressed natural gas (CNG), which allows both air quality improvements and energy security benefits. One of the market friendly policies to encourage the fuel switch was to increase the price differential between CNG and petrol and diesel. This has allowed a wide-scale adoption of CNG as the fuel of choice. However, several years into the policy, there is now a widespread belief among the policymakers that the CNG conversion may have increased car ownership and car travel due to their lower running costs, resulting in more congestion and a reversal of the strategy is on the cards. It is therefore important to test the hypothesis whether CNG conversion had genuinely increased car ownership and car travel in Dhaka city. This paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey and an econometric intervention analysis to understand the impact of CNG conversion on car ownership and car travel in Dhaka. Attention is also given to disentangle the self-selection and price-induced travel effects of CNG conversion. Results show that ownership did not increase, but travel of on-road vehicles increased due to the CNG policy. However, additional congestion costs are still around one half of the health benefits brought about by the policy.