Stress overload as a red flag for freshman failure and attrition

Freshman attrition is a major concern for universities, prompting research to identify red flags for academic failure. Stress might be one such signal, but universities have not incorporated it into predictive algorithms. It was hypothesized that “stress overload”, the destructive form of stress described in theories, would (1) predict grades and attrition as well as traditional algorithm variables, and (2) explain minority disparities in grades and attrition. The Stress Overload Scale (SOS) was tested for the first time as a predictor in two studies using different samples from the same cohort of freshmen entering a large public university. The first study (n = 569), conducted during the first semester, showed stress overload to predict term GPA better than most traditional predictors. Also, because SOS means differed and the SOS-GPA correlation was invariant across minority and white students, stress overload partially accounted for grade disparities. A second study (n = 584) in the second semester showed stress overload to remain among the best predictors of term GPA. However, no variable except GPA predicted attrition. Moreover, SOS means were now comparable for minority and white students, and because its association with GPA remained invariant, the SOS could no longer explain grade disparities. Together, results indicated that stress overload is a red flag for poor grades for all freshmen (minority and white) across their first year, but by the second semester, those grades become more proximal predictors of attrition. Possible reasons for these findings, and their implications for using the SOS in predictive algorithms, are discussed.