The growth of mathematics and reading skills in segregated and diverse schools: An opportunity-propensity analysis of a national database

The goal of the present study was to continue to build and refine the Opportunity-Propensity (O-P) model of achievement by using it to explain well-known achievement disparities between schools that differ in terms of their racial and ethnic composition. The O-P model categorizes predictors into antecedent factors (e.g., family SES, parent educational aspirations), opportunity factors (e.g., content coverage and teaching style), and propensity factors (e.g., prior knowledge and motivation). To refine the model further, the authors did the following: (a) added predictors in each category that have not been examined to date; (b) used hierarchical linear modeling to explain growth in knowledge between two assessment points; (c) identified similarities and differences in the models for two content areas (i.e., math and reading); and (d) identified similarities and differences in the models for two age levels (i.e., 3rd grade and 8th grade). Results showed that the combination of new and established predictors accounted for approximately 50% of the variance in the rate at which knowledge grew in both math and reading at both age levels. In addition, the variance explained by the racial and ethnic composition of schools when this variable was entered as the sole predictor of achievement was substantially reduced after antecedent, opportunity, and propensity factors were entered in subsequent models. However, the coefficients for certain school compositions remained significant even after such controls, and the models differed somewhat between content areas (math and reading), and age levels (3rd and 8th grade). Findings are discussed in terms of the implications of these results for building and refining the O-P model further.