Multivariate risk analysis of an intensified modular hydroformylation process

• Economic risk analyses applied to design of modular propene hydroformylation.
• CFaR analysis is applied to find setups for fluctuating markets.
• EMV is used for long-term planning in uncertain demand scenarios.
• Adapting modular plant to reduce risks increases investment costs slightly.

Reduction of investment risk is a major challenge in chemical process design. To minimize financial risks a paradigm shift is necessary. Therefore, risk analysis will have to gain importance already during process development. Only in this way can plant designs be identified that cover the expected demand uncertainty at optimal costs. Stepwise expansion is one option to reduce risks as investments can be spread over a certain time period. This allows waiting for more precise market information and adapting production output to changing market development. The drawback of this approach is the loss in economy of scale. Potentially higher investment costs have to be balanced against an achievable risk reduction which makes the integration of risk assessment in process design indispensable. Furthermore, equipment allowing for an efficient numbering up in plant expansion is needed. Here one of the most promising options is the application of intensified equipment.This work shows how process intensified equipment can be used to reduce the investment risk of a large scale hydroformylation plant. Two methods for risk quantification are applied. Both show that investment risk is reduced by numbering up unit operations and adapting their size. Influencing parameters are the cost structure and process boundaries.