Multi-stage nonlinear model predictive control applied to a semi-batch polymerization reactor under uncertainty

• We present a non-conservative robust NMPC scheme.
• It is a general framework that includes nominal and min–max NMPC.
• It has better performance than nominal and min–max NMPC.
• It can be used in combination with state estimation for noisy measurements.
• In the case of state and parameter estimation it is still superior to standard NMPC.

Model predictive control (MPC) has become one of the most popular control techniques in the process industry mainly because of its ability to deal with multiple-input–multiple-output plants and with constraints. However, in the presence of model uncertainties and disturbances its performance can deteriorate. Therefore, the development of robust MPC techniques has been widely discussed during the last years, but they were rarely, if at all, applied in practice due to the conservativeness or the computational complexity of the approaches. In this paper, we present multi-stage NMPC as a promising robust non-conservative nonlinear model predictive control scheme. The approach is based on the representation of the evolution of the uncertainty by a scenario tree, and leads to a non-conservative robust control of the uncertain plant because the adaptation of future inputs to new information is taken into account. Simulation results show that multi-stage NMPC outperforms standard and min–max NMPC under the presence of uncertainties for a semi-batch polymerization benchmark problem. In addition, the advantages of the approach are illustrated for the case where only noisy measurements are available and the unmeasured states and the uncertainties have to be estimated using an observer. It is shown that better performance can be achieved than by estimating the unknown parameters online and adapting the plant model.