کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6896324 | 1445992 | 2016 | 30 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Easy, reliable method for mid-term demand forecasting based on the Bass model: A hybrid approach of NLS and OLS
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی کامپیوتر
علوم کامپیوتر (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Easy, reliable method for mid-term demand forecasting based on the Bass model: A hybrid approach of NLS and OLS Easy, reliable method for mid-term demand forecasting based on the Bass model: A hybrid approach of NLS and OLS](/preview/png/6896324.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
For mid-term demand forecasting, the accuracy, stability, and ease of use of the forecasting method are considered important user requirements. We propose a new forecasting method using linearization of the hazard rate formula of the Bass model. In the proposal, reduced non-linear least square method is used to determine the market potential estimate, after the estimates for the coefficient of innovation and the coefficient of imitation are obtained by using ordinary least square method with the new linearization of the Bass model. Validations of 29 real data sets and 36 simulation data sets show that the proposed method is accurate and stable. Considering the user requirements, our method could be suitable for mid-term forecasting based on the Bass model. It has high forecasting accuracy and superior stability, is easy to understand, and can be programmed using software such as MS Excel and Matlab.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research - Volume 248, Issue 2, 16 January 2016, Pages 681-690
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research - Volume 248, Issue 2, 16 January 2016, Pages 681-690
نویسندگان
Jungsik Hong, Hoonyoung Koo, Taegu Kim,