کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6962456 1452267 2016 5 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Sensitivity Analysis of Range Dynamics Models (SARDM): Quantifying the influence of parameter uncertainty on forecasts of extinction risk from global change
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزار
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Sensitivity Analysis of Range Dynamics Models (SARDM): Quantifying the influence of parameter uncertainty on forecasts of extinction risk from global change
چکیده انگلیسی
Spatially explicit demographic models are increasingly being used to forecast the effect of global change on the range dynamics of species. These models are typically complex, with the structure and parameter values often estimated with considerable uncertainty. If not properly accounted, this can lead to bias or false precision in projections of changes to species range dynamics and extinction risk. Here we present a new open-source freeware tool, “Sensitivity Analysis of Range Dynamics Models” (SARDM) that provides an all-in-one approach for: (i) determining the implications of integrating complex and often uncertain information into spatially explicit demographic models compiled in RAMAS GIS, and (ii) identifying and ranking the relative importance of different sources of parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques built into SARDM will facilitate ecologists and conservation scientists in better establishing confidence in forecasts of range movement and abundance.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 83, September 2016, Pages 193-197
نویسندگان
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