کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6962556 | 1452270 | 2016 | 18 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی کامپیوتر
نرم افزار
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database](/preview/png/6962556.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that a diversity of socio-economic pathways can lead to the same radiative forcing, and therefore that a given level of radiative forcing can have very different socio-economic impacts. We propose a methodology that implements a “scenario discovery” cluster analysis and systematically identifies diverse groups of scenarios that share common outcomes among a database of socio-economic scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology with two examples using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways framework. We find that high emissions scenarios can be associated with either high or low per capita GDP growth, and that high productivity growth and catch-up are not necessarily associated with high per capita GDP and high emissions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 80, June 2016, Pages 336-353
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 80, June 2016, Pages 336-353
نویسندگان
Céline Guivarch, Julie Rozenberg, Vanessa Schweizer,