Probability analysis of distributed generation for island scenarios utilizing Carolinas data

• A model of a real distribution subsystem was modified to include islanding.
• Wind and solar resources were sized based on theoretical availability.
• Probability analysis was conducted for the resources based on actual weather data.
• Parameters for the creation of an island within the system were created.
• Seasonal results for probability analyses demonstrate the volatility of renewables.

A distribution system in the Carolinas power grid is modeled to include distributed generation and islanding capacity to create a self-supporting isolation capability. Probability analysis in the form of probability density functions for renewable resources is explained and detailed. The operating conditions within the system are defined using the generation levels of the renewable generation. These operating conditions are then interpreted through the probability analysis. Using these techniques, some of the most relevant results of the study are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the usefulness of the results. This includes a progressive analysis that covers time periods from seasons to hours, and how these analyses could be utilized by system operators.