کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
704894 1644970 2013 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Analyzing the performance of a time-dependent probabilistic approach for bulk network reliability assessment
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Analyzing the performance of a time-dependent probabilistic approach for bulk network reliability assessment
چکیده انگلیسی


• New sequential MCS method that focuses on building down states of component lifecycles without requiring an inverse function.
• Beta distribution applied which has had limited application in reliability studies.
• TDPA is more computationally efficient than the conventional sequential MCS.
• TDPA derives similar results as the conventional sequential MCS for the same failure data sets.
• TDPA results are more dependent on the representation of the failure parameters than on the number of simulations.

The conventional sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) considers states in which a component is both in and out of service. Sequential MCS has been applied in different analyses whilst considering both symmetrical and asymmetrical probability distributions. The Beta distribution is however not one of the commonly recommended distributions for use in sequential MCS due to the complexity in deriving its inverse transform. A new sequential MCS technique that applies the Beta distribution is proposed in this paper. The technique is a time-dependent probabilistic approach (TDPA) that uses probability density functions (PDFs) to characterize stochastic network parameters in terms of their season- and time-dependency and simulates the component down (failure) states. The effect of this simulation approach on reliability calculations is analyzed using a published test network. The impact of dispersion and skewness in PDF based input models on a reliability analysis is also investigated. The results show that the TDPA can replicate the conventional sequential MCS analysis. The TDPA computation is also significantly faster. The simulation results of the TDPA also show that dispersion and skewness of component failure rate PDFs significantly influence a reliability analysis.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Electric Power Systems Research - Volume 104, November 2013, Pages 156–163
نویسندگان
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