Probabilistic approach to available transfer capability calculation

This paper suggests a probabilistic approach to calculate available transfer capability in the interconnected network. Calculation of available transfer capability is complicated because it involves determination of total transfer capability, transmission reliability margin and capacity benefit margin.In the suggested available transfer capability quantification method, total transfer capability is determined by the continuation power flow process. Transmission reliability margin and capacity benefit margin are evaluated by probabilistic load flow and Monte Carlo simulation, respectively.Proposed method is applied to a modified IEEE 72-bus 3-area system to calculate available transfer capability on two different time spans. Results of the case study show that suggested probabilistic approach can offer operational flexibility for system operators to consider system and market uncertainties.