کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
710643 892116 2016 6 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Dynamic Short-Term Projections of Travel Time Distributions in Urban Signalized Networks utilizing Composite Information of Traffic Characteristics
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی های کوتاه مدت پویا توزیع زمان سفر در شبکه های سیگنال شهری با استفاده از اطلاعات کامپوزیتی از ویژگی های ترافیکی
کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی زمان سفر سیستم های طراحی پویا، مدل های مدت زمان نظری، مدل های خط مشی معکوس
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مکانیک محاسباتی
چکیده انگلیسی

:The estimation of experienced travel-time in road networks stands for an important feature in Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS). In the era of data availability, the dissemination of accurate traffic information to travelers could have a huge impact on their trip choices and thus in systems’ performance. The scope of this paper is time travel modeling and prediction based on alternative configurations of mixed duration and time series models. The proposed framework enables the dynamic probabilistic estimation of travel time between a predefined set of Origin-Destinations (O-D) locations, by taking into account available spatial data. For achieving that, suitable formulated hazard models are combined with time series input, forming a hybrid methodological framework and compared to two different theoretical duration models. The resulted mechanism provides valuable probabilistic estimations for travel time for O-D pairs, able to cover extensive urban road networks. In particular, the proposed modeling approach uses past travel time observations as inputs and provides distributions of future travel times. The proposed application is tested on a realistic road network, namely that of Cyprus. The aim of the study is to provide reliable travel information to travelers in a methodologically sound, straightforward and comprehensible way.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: IFAC-PapersOnLine - Volume 49, Issue 3, 2016, Pages 237–242
نویسندگان
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