A measurement-based power system model for dynamic response estimation and instability warning

Traditional power system dynamic models are very complex due to the intricacy of power system networks and can be inaccurate for control because of the amount of details needed and the fact that the grid topology changes all the time. With the fast deployment of a large number of phasor measurement units (PMUs) in the transmission network, a purely measurement-based model for dynamics estimation and control may be obtained. After a preliminary examination of the strong linearity of large-scale power systems, this paper proposes a linear autoregressive with exogenous input model (ARX)-structured power system dynamic model and demonstrates that this proposed model is effective in power system dynamic response estimation and instability warning. Both simulation and real measurement data have been used to validate the proposed method.