A computational method in analyzing of delivery time uncertainty for highly complex supply networks

Today, business models are invariably part of complex networks of suppliers, manufacturers and distributors. Uncertainty is recognized as an inevitable characteristic of supply networks and managers need to be aware of its specifications and consequences of that. Therefore, understanding, acknowledgment, and moderation of the causes and effect of uncertainty is crucial. Under-controlled uncertainty leads to the improvement of networks' performances and reliable networks. This paper complies with uncertain complex supply networks with their fundamental types. By defining critical routes in PERT networks, a combination of stochastic and mathematical models calculates the delivery time uncertainty in supply networks. This approach can be used as a tool for managers to control and monitor uncertainty in complex networks.