Treatment of accumulative variables in data-driven prognostics of lead-acid batteries

Problems with starter batteries in heavy-duty trucks can cause costly unplanned stops along the road. Frequent battery changes can increase availability but is expensive and sometimes not necessary since battery degradation is highly dependent on the particular vehicle usage and ambient conditions. The main contribution of this work is case study where prognostic information on remaining useful life of lead-acid batteries in individual Scania heavy-duty trucks is computed. A data-driven approach using random survival forests is used where the prognostic algorithm has access to fleet operational data including 291 variables from 33603 vehicles from 5 different European markets. A main implementation aspect that is discussed is the treatment of accumulative variables such as vehicle age in the approach. Battery lifetime predictions are computed and evaluated on recorded data from Scania's fleet-management system and the effect of how accumulative variables are handled is analyzed.