Feasibility and potential of thermal demand side management in residential buildings considering different developments in the German energy market

A transition in the electricity market is required to manage the volatility of increasing renewable energy generation. These fluctuations can be faced with flexible consumption through Demand Side Management (DSM), establishment of further centralized storage capacities and provisioning of dynamic back up generation capacities. At least the latter two options can impose large establishment and operation costs upon the electricity market. Therefore, the feasibility and the resulting potential of coupling the electricity grid with the thermal supply of residential buildings is analysed in this paper. Thereby, inexpensive and widespread thermal storage capacities could be used to improve the integration of dynamic renewable electricity generation. In this paper the technical and economical key impact factors for such thermal DSM approach are elaborated. Based on a literature review, the identified key factors are aggregated to form consistent scenarios of the German “Energiewende” (turnaround in energy policy). The practicability and possible magnitude of the intended DSM is then analysed based on the identified scenarios. All resulting scenarios highlight the growing demand for a flexible electricity market. Especially in scenarios with strong growth of renewable electricity generation, up to 45 GW of flexible electric capacities would be required in Germany by the year 2030. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that independently of the energy market development, it is very likely that electricity coupled supply systems will continuously have installed capacities of at least 14 GW. It is found that especially the strong dissemination of smart metering and smart control infrastructure is crucial to incorporate these capacities into DSM activities. Furthermore, the necessity and the resulting benefits of residential end-user participation in the electricity market need to be communicated to all stakeholders to ensure the availability and acceptance of dynamic pricing schemes in the future.