کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7195588 1468228 2015 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی ریسک با تلفیق مدلسازی ساختاری تفسیری و شبکه بیزی، مورد خط لوله خط لوله دریایی
کلمات کلیدی
ارزیابی ریسک، مدلسازی ساختاری تفسیری، شبکه بیزی، پروژه خط لوله دریایی،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی مکانیک
چکیده انگلیسی
The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause-effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - Volume 142, October 2015, Pages 515-524
نویسندگان
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