کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7195854 | 1468249 | 2014 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cookeâ²s classical model
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
سایر رشته های مهندسی
مهندسی مکانیک
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چکیده انگلیسی
In risk analysis, Cookeâ²s classical model for aggregating expert judgment has been widely used for over 20 years. However, the validity of this model has been the subject of much debate. Critics assert that this modelâ²s scoring rule may unintentionally reward experts who manipulate their quantile estimates in order to receive a greater weight. In addition, the question of the number of seed variables required to ensure adequate performance of Cookeâ²s classical model remains unanswered. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive examination of the model through an iterative, cross validation test to perform an out-of-sample comparison between Cookeâ²s classical model and the equal-weight linear opinion pool method on almost all of the expert judgment studies compiled by Cooke and colleagues to date. Our results indicate that Cookeâ²s classical model significantly outperforms equally weighting expert judgment, regardless of the number of seed variables used; however, there may, in fact, be a maximum number of seed variables beyond which Cookeâ²s model cannot outperform an equally-weighted panel.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - Volume 121, January 2014, Pages 72-82
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - Volume 121, January 2014, Pages 72-82
نویسندگان
Justin W. Eggstaff, Thomas A. Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani,