La sobrevaloración del tipo de cambio real de la economía española

In the first part of this work we apply the tradables and non-tradables model to characterise the main economic imbalances of the Spanish economy and to derive the equation that rationalizes and supports the Penn effect. In the second part, we estimate the Penn effect equation using annual cross-sectional data of two large samples of countries for each year of the period 2000-2009. We observe that the real exchange rate of the Spanish economy with respect the rest of the world started an overvaluation process in 2002 that reached its maximum level in 2008 (between 27% and 29%). The overvaluation rate dropped to 17%-19% in 2009, as a result of the deflationary impact of the financial crisis. We analyse the economic imbalances that accompany this misalignment, and deduce some policy prescriptions to solve them.