کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7347161 | 1476499 | 2018 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Assessing the gains and vulnerability of free trade: A counterfactual analysis of Macau
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی دستاوردها و آسیب پذیری تجارت آزاد: تحلیل متقابل مکاکو
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
Free trade can generate macroeconomic gains but also vulnerability to external shocks for a highly-specialized economy. To test this hypothesis, we evaluate the effects of Mainland-Macau Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) on Macau's real GDP growth rate and its volatility, as well as the costs of exposure to the anti-corruption campaign from mainland China using a counterfactual analysis. Counterfactuals of Macau are constructed by exploiting the inter-dependence among different economic entities and the optimal control group is selected with a leave-nv-out cross-validation method. Our results support the hypothesis. CEPA raised the annual real GDP growth rate of Macau by 20.76% from 2004 to 2007, meanwhile it increased the volatility of real GDP growth rate by 35%, and the anti-corruption campaign reduced the annual real GDP growth rate by 17.54% from 2013 to 2016. Our findings imply that free trade could be a double-edged sword for a small and highly-specialized economy and the gains of free trade can be enlarged by reducing its vulnerability.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 70, April 2018, Pages 147-158
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 70, April 2018, Pages 147-158
نویسندگان
Hua Yin, Zaichao Du, Lin Zhang,