کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7375409 1480071 2018 25 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Understanding viral video dynamics through an epidemic modelling approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
درک دینامیک فیلم ویروسی از طریق یک مدل سازی همه گیر
کلمات کلیدی
فیلم های ویروسی، مدل اپیدمی، تاخیر گسسته، معادلات دیفرانسیل تأخیر،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات فیزیک ریاضی
چکیده انگلیسی
Motivated by the hypothesis that the spread of viral videos is analogous to the spread of a disease epidemic, we formulate a novel susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) delay differential equation epidemic model to describe the popularity evolution of viral videos. Our models incorporate time-delay, in order to accurately describe the virtual contact process between individuals and the temporary immunity of individuals to videos after they have grown tired of watching them. We validate our models by fitting model parameters to viewing data from YouTube music videos, in order to demonstrate that the model solutions accurately reproduce real behaviour seen in this data. We use an SEIR model to describe the initial growth and decline of daily views, and an SEIRS model to describe the long term behaviour of the popularity of music videos. We also analyse the decay rates in the daily views of videos, determining whether they follow a power law or exponential distribution. Although we focus on viral videos, the modelling approach may be used to understand dynamics emergent from other areas of science which aim to describe consumer behaviour.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications - Volume 502, 15 July 2018, Pages 416-435
نویسندگان
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