کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7377516 | 1480116 | 2016 | 20 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تشخیص یک تغییر روند در انتقال اپیدمی بین مرزی
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
فیزیک ریاضی
چکیده انگلیسی
A method for a system of Langevin equations is developed for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission. The equations represent a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method analyzes a time series of the number of new cases reported in multiple geographical regions. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the implemented public health intervention in managing infectious travelers across borders. It is found that the change point of the probability of travel movements was one week after the WHO worldwide alert on the SARS outbreak in 2003. The alert was effective in managing infectious travelers. On the other hand, it is found that the probability of travel movements did not change at all for the flu pandemic in 2009. The pandemic did not affect potential travelers despite the WHO alert.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications - Volume 457, 1 September 2016, Pages 73-81
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications - Volume 457, 1 September 2016, Pages 73-81
نویسندگان
Yoshiharu Maeno,