Conditional Cash Transfers and Payments for Environmental Services-A Conceptual Framework for Explaining and Judging Differences in Outcomes

► We develop a conceptual framework of determinants of the impact of CCT and PES programs. ► Compliance with conditions in the absence of payments is a good predictor of efficiency. ► CCT and PES efficiency is highly eroded by selection bias in participation. ► The framework can guide policy choice through ex-ante estimates of program impacts.