کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7397464 1481242 2018 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050
چکیده انگلیسی
With the accelerating process of urbanization, energy consumption and emissions of the transport sector in China have increased rapidly. In this paper, we employed the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) model to estimate the energy consumption, CO2 (carbon dioxide) and air pollutant emissions of the transport sector between 2010 and 2050 under four scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Efficiency Improvement (EEI), Transport Mode Optimization (TMO), and Comprehensive Policy (CP). Furthermore, the intake fraction method was adopted to assess the health benefits of reducing pollutant emissions. The results showed that energy consumption will reach 509-1284 Mtce under the different scenarios by 2050. The emissions of CO2, carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOX) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) will be 2601, 173, 3.4, 24.0, 0.94 and 0.78 Mt, respectively, under the BAU scenario in 2050. Regarding health benefits, economic losses caused by mortality will be reduced by 47, 40 and 72 billion USD in 2050 under the EEI, TMO and CP scenarios, respectively, compared to those under the BAU scenario. Among the health outcomes associated with PM10, acute bronchitis exhibits the worst outcome. Considering health impacts, policy implications are suggested to reduce CO2 and pollutant emissions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 116, May 2018, Pages 382-396
نویسندگان
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