Reinventing the wheel? Modelling temporal uncertainty with applications to brooch distributions in Roman Britain

A simple, simulation-based model of temporal uncertainty is presented that embraces other approaches recently proposed in the literature, including those more usually involving mathematical calculation rather than simulation. More specifically, it is shown how the random generation of dates for events, conditioned by uncertain temporal knowledge of the true date, can be adapted to what has been called the chronological apportioning of artefact assemblages and aoristic analysis (as a temporal rather than spatio-temporal method). The methodology is in the same spirit - though there are differences - as that underpinning the use of summed radiocarbon dates. A possibly novel approach to representing temporal change is suggested. Ideas are illustrated using data extracted from a large corpus of late Iron Age and Roman brooches, where the focus of interest was on their temporal distribution over a period of about 450 years.