Summed radiocarbon calibrations as a population proxy: a critical evaluation using a realistic simulation approach

Results highlight 1) the critical role played by the magnitude and duration of any population fluctuation, and 2) the importance of sample size, and the reality that the numbers of samples required to detect significant population changes are generally far higher than those available to researchers proposing demographic reconstructions on the basis of literature searches for radiocarbon dates. We conclude that even if archaeological 14C data sets could be corrected for taphonomic filters and research biases, demographic signals would be difficult to distinguish from statistical noise in summed probability distributions. We suggest that simulation studies should be integral components of any attempt to reconstruct prehistoric demography from 14C dates.