New methods for reconstructing geographical effects on dispersal rates and routes from large-scale radiocarbon databases

We illustrate our approach with a case study, the spread of the Neolithic transition in Europe, using a database from the literature (Pinhasi, Fort and Amerman 2005). Our methods find support for a geographical model in which dispersal is limited by an altitudinal cut-off and in which there is a climate-related latitudinal gradient in rate of spread. This model leads to a deceleration in front propagation rate with geodesic distance, which is also consistent with models of the propagation of the Neolithic transition under space competition with pre-existing populations of hunter-gatherers. Our genetic algorithms meanwhile searched the parameter space and found support for an alternative model involving fast spread along the northern Mediterranean coast and the Danube/Rhine riverine corridor. Both these models outperformed the geography-free Great Circle distance model, and both also outperformed another, almost geography-free, model that constrains dispersal to land to and near-offshore coastal waters. The adjusted coefficient of determination for modelled and observed radiocarbon dates for first arrival supports the GA-derived model; the shortest path network analysis, however, gives greater support to the model with altitudinal cut-off and latitudinal gradient in dispersal rate, since it produces branching 'dispersal trees' that are more congruent with these archaeological sites' clade memberships (as defined by archaeological material culture).