کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7463160 | 1484939 | 2018 | 28 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Candidates and campaigns: How they alter election forecasts
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
نامزدها و کمپین ها: چگونه پیش بینی های انتخابات را تغییر می دهند
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کلمات کلیدی
انتخابات پیش بینی، مشخصات کاندید کمپین ها،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
علوم اجتماعی
جغرافیا، برنامه ریزی و توسعه
چکیده انگلیسی
We know that candidates and campaigns matter in democratic elections, but that knowledge may not be readily observed in most structural models of national election forecasting. For one, these models virtually never include direct, explicit candidate-related campaign variables as predictors. At most, these candidate/campaign variables are picked up indirectly, usually in polling measures, such as vote intention. For another, the models often manage accurate, ex ante forecasts of US presidential election results, even without the obvious prâesence of such variables. In this effort, we aim to overcome this paradox by including more direct candidate and campaign measures in a long-standing structural equation model of presidential election forecasting, namely the Political Economy model. We find that inclusions of these candidate and campaign variables do improve the theoretical specification and the statistical performance of the model, and do yield generally more accurate forecasts. However, at least for the test case of the 2016 contest, that increased precision failed to substantively alter the Clinton popular vote forecast.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 54, August 2018, Pages 303-308
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 54, August 2018, Pages 303-308
نویسندگان
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien,