کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7492553 1485567 2018 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Could rainfall have swung the result of the Brexit referendum?
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی علوم انسانی و هنر تاریخ
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Could rainfall have swung the result of the Brexit referendum?
چکیده انگلیسی
Previous studies have shown that weather conditions may affect voter turnout, sometimes in ways that could plausibly swing the result of a close election. On the day of Britain's EU Referendum, the presence of torrential rain in the South-East of England and Northern Ireland raised concern in the media that voter turnout could be affected in a manner that favoured the Vote Leave campaign. To test this assertion, this paper takes data at the polling district level and overlays interpolated rainfall data using geographic information system (GIS) technology. Despite widespread expectations to the contrary, our analysis shows that the rain had the greatest effect on the leave vote, reducing the Brexiteer tally by as many as 4618 votes in one district. We find that if the referendum had taken place on a sunny day, there would have been a small increase in the margin of victory for Vote Leave.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Political Geography - Volume 65, July 2018, Pages 134-142
نویسندگان
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