Exploring hotspots of pneumococcal pneumonia and potential impacts of ejecta dust exposure following the Christchurch earthquakes

The etiology of pneumococcal pneumonia (PP) is well-known. Yet, some events may increase its incidence. Natural disasters may worsen air quality, a risk factor for PP. We investigated spatial/spatio-temporal clustering of PP pre- and post-earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand. The earthquakes resulted in deaths, widespread damage and liquefaction ejecta (a source of air-borne dust). We tested for clusters and associations with ejecta, using 97 cases (diagnosed 10/2008-12/2011), adjusted for age and area-level deprivation. The strongest evidence to support the potential role of ejecta in clusters of PP cases was the: (1) geographic shift in the spatio-temporal cluster after deprivation adjustment to match the post-earthquake clusters and; (2) increased relative risk in the fully-adjusted post-earthquake compared to the pre-earthquake cluster. The application of spatial statistics to study PP and ejecta are novel. Further studies to assess the long-term impacts of ejecta inhalation are recommended particularly in Christchurch, where seismic activity continues.