کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7549752 1489894 2014 5 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
SIR epidemic models with general infectious period distribution
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات آمار و احتمال
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
SIR epidemic models with general infectious period distribution
چکیده انگلیسی
We show how epidemics in which individuals' infectious periods are not necessarily exponentially distributed may be naturally modelled as piecewise deterministic Markov processes. For the standard susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model, we exhibit a family of martingales which may be used to derive the joint distribution of the number of survivors of the epidemic and the area under the trajectory of infectives. We also show how these results may be extended to a model in which the rate at which an infective generates infectious contacts may be an arbitrary function of the number of susceptible individuals present.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Statistics & Probability Letters - Volume 85, February 2014, Pages 1-5
نویسندگان
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